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News : EU Economy Last Updated: Apr 24, 2009 - 5:31:05 PM


German economy shrank in the second quarter of 2008; Consumer price index rose 3.3% in July 2008 - a 15 year high
By Finfacts Team
Aug 14, 2008 - 7:28:04 AM

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The German economy shrank in the second quarter of 2008 - the first time in almost four years. The gross domestic product (GDP) was down by 0.5% on the first quarter of 2008 upon price, seasonal and calendar adjustment. In the first three months of the year, the GDP was up 1.3%. The last time the German economy recorded a decrease was in the third quarter of 2004 (–0.2%). Destatis also reported that consumer price index for Germany rose 3.3% in July 2008 - a 15 year high.

Germany accounts for about 30% of Eurozone output.

As reported by the Federal Statistics Office, Destatis, the economic trend in the second quarter was characterised by decreasing household final consumption expenditure and smaller fixed capital formation. Especially capital formation in construction was markedly down on the first quarter. A positive contribution was made by foreign trade, which however was mainly due to a significant decrease in imports.
 
The GDP was up 3.1% in the second quarter of 2008 compared with the same quarter a year earlier. When calendar adjusted, the growth rate was 1.7% as the reference quarter had three more working days than the second quarter of 2007.
 
The economic performance in the second quarter of 2008 was achieved by 40.2 million persons in employment, which was an increase of 566,000 persons or 1.4% on a year earlier.

In addition to the first calculation of data for the second quarter, the results published so far for the last four years (from 2004) were revised at the same time, as is the case every year in August. Such continuous revisions are carried out routinely to integrate newly available statistical information into the calculations. Hence, the GDP calculation is successively put on an ever better founded data basis in statistical terms.

The complete basic statistics required for a “final” calculation of national accounting data generally are available only after about four years, so that only then are the results final and do no longer have to be revised on a regular basis.
 
The current recalculations resulted in rates of change of the annual and quarterly GDP (unadjusted figures) which differ from the previously published results by up to 0.2 percentage points. The rates of change of the seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly results were revised by up to 0.3 percentage points.
 
Continued price surge due to energy and food

 

Destatis also reported today that the consumer price index for Germany rose 3.3% in July 2008 on July 2007 - 15 year  high. (December 1993: + 4.2%; June 2008: + 3.3%). Compared with June 2008, the index increased by 0.6%.
 
The inflation rate of July 2008 was characterised mainly by price increases for non-durable consumer goods (+ 8.2%), in particular the prices for energy and food were much higher in July 2008 than in July 2007 (+15.1% and +8.0%) and accounted for more than two thirds of the total price increase.
 
In the energy sector, prices were up especially for mineral oil products (+ 24.0%; including liquid fuel: + 59.4% and motor fuels: + 15.2%). Although above-average price rises were observed also for the other sources of household energy (gas: + 8.1% and electricity: + 6.8%), they were markedly below the price increases for mineral oil products. Not considering the price trend for energy products (household energy and motor fuels), the year-on-year rate of price increase would have been +1.9%.
 
As regards food, milk, cheese and eggs were much more expensive than one year earlier (+ 18.0%; including curd: + 28.4%; sliced cheese: + 27.1% and yoghurt: + 16.9%), followed by oils and fats (+ 17.0%; including vegetable oil: + 29.9% and butter: + 13.2%), bread and cereals (+ 9.1%; including noodles: + 28.8% and rolls: + 9.1%). Markedly higher prices were recorded in July 2008 also for a bar of chocolate (+ 14.6% compared with July 2007). In contrast to that, below-average price increases were observed for fish and sea fruit (+ 1.4%).
 
Compared with non-durable consumer goods, the price trend for consumer goods with a medium-term life (− 0.2%; including clothing and footwear: − 0.9%) and durable consumer goods (− 0.6%; including information processing equipment: − 15.6% and household appliances: − 0.5%) had a dampening effect on inflation. The prices of services were an average 1.5% above the index level of the previous year (including insurance services: + 3.8% and net rents exclusive of heating expenses: + 1.3%).

The relatively strong rate of change of the consumer price index on June 2008 (+0.6%) was above all caused by the prices of package holidays (+13.8%), accommodation services (+9.7%; including holiday home rents: +27.1%) and air travel (+8.9% ), which increased substantially at the beginning of the holidays. In the holiday month of July 2008, consumers also had to pay higher prices for motor fuels (+1.4%). Thus motor fuel prices reached a new peak.
 
Food prices increased an average 0.3% on the previous month. As is typical for this season, the prices of some types of vegetables declined (including cucumbers: −12.5% and lettuce: −7.4%), while price rises were recorded for some types of fruit, namely oranges (+5.8%) and apples (+5.0%). Repeated price increases were also observed for milk, and oils and fats (including butter: +5.8%; vegetable oil: +3.4% and fresh full-cream milk: +2.3%). Compared with June 2008, however, drops in prices were recorded, among other things, for clothing and footwear (−3.1%; of which clothing: −3.4% and footwear: −1.6%). Price reductions were particularly observed for items in the summer sales.
 
The EU harmonised consumer price index (HICP) for Germany, which is calculated for European purposes, rose 3.5% in July 2008 on July 2007. Compared with the previous month, the index was up 0.7%. The HICP estimate of 29 July 2008 was thus slightly revised upwards.
 

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