UK house prices fell the most in almost two decades in July and consumer confidence fell to a record low as the economy moved closer to a recession.
The average house value fell 8.1% from a year earlier, the biggest drop since at least 1991, Nationwide Building Society, the UK's fourth-biggest mortgage lender, said today. An index of confidence based on a survey of 2,001 people fell 5 points to minus 39, the lowest since 1974 according to GfK NOP Ltd.
Commenting on the housing figures Fionnuala Earley, Nationwide's Chief Economist, said: “The price of a typical house fell by 1.7% in July, bringing the annual fall to 8.1%. This brings the average price to £169,316, almost £15,000 less than this time last year and its lowest level since August 2006. House prices have now been falling for nine consecutive months, but on average are still almost £11,000 higher than three years ago.
“The latest batch of economic data has been fairly poor. GDP estimates for the second quarter show a slowing in each of the main economic sectors. Retail sales collapsed in June, reversing May’s surprisingly strong outturn, and confirming the view that consumers are tightening their belts in the current climate. Inflation remains well above target and is expected to continue to rise this year and the labour market is also showing signs of deteriorating.
The claimant count measure of unemployment increased for the fifth consecutive month in June to 840,000. Although it is 2.7% lower than this time last year, the Bank of England Agents’ Report shows a fall in employers’ employment intentions, which would suggest that the situation is unlikely to improve in the coming months. The risk of an economic recession in the UK is now clearly rising."
UK Confidence at an all time low
- The GfK NOP Index has dropped by a further 5 points in July to -39, which is the lowest level ever recorded.
- Confidence in the home over the next 12 months drops by 9 points to a new low, 31 points down on this time last year.
- Confidence in the economy over the next 12 months drops by 7 points to -52, down 39 points on this time last year.
Donna Culverwell in the Consumer Confidence team at GfK NOP commented: "The Index score has dropped again this month and is now at its lowest level since the survey began in 1974. At -39, this is 4 points lower than in March 1990 when the UK was heading into the grip of the last recession. With the cost of living still on the increase, the housing market in a depression and reports of possible further increases in energy prices, levels of confidence amongst consumers are not surprisingly low, especially amongst women or those over the age of 50. There seems to be little sign of any relief either; with the growing spectre of the UK going into recession, people are pessimistic and concerned about their future - reflected in the biggest drop this month being seen in people’s confidence in their own personal financial situation over coming twelve months.”
In a separate survey also carried out by GfK NOP in July,
it was found that the UK consumer is tightening the belt and spending less on food, leisure activities and holidays.
- 42% have changed to buying supermarket own brands rather than branded goods and 28% have switched to a discount supermarket.
- 41% are going out to pubs or restaurants less.
- 38% have cut back on the amount of holiday travel they plan to do
Soaring oil prices and general concerns about the environment have also led to a reduction in car travel and increased the attraction of public transport as an alternative.
- 50% of drivers have reduced the number of journeys they make by car
- 21% of drivers are using public transport more, rather than travel by car
(Source: GfK NOP’s Consumer Behaviour Monitor interviewed 999 UK adults by telephone on 19-20 July 2008.)
UK Consumer Confidence Measures – July 2008
The overall index score this month has fallen five points to -39, thirty-three points lower than this time last year and its lowest level since the survey began in 1974. This has been caused by falls across all five measures. The annual moving average has dropped to -17.
|
July 2008 |
June 2008 |
July 2007 |
| Overall index score |
-39 |
-34 |
-6 |
| Personal financial situation over last 12 months |
-20 |
-17 |
0 |
| Personal financial situation over next 12 months |
-18 |
-9 |
+13 |
| General economic situation over last 12 months |
-69 |
-66 |
-25 |
| General economic situation over next 12 months |
-52 |
-45 |
-13 |
| Climate for major purchases |
-37 |
-35 |
-2 |
Personal Financial Situation
The index measuring changes in personal finances during the last year has dropped by three points to a score of -20; this is twenty points lower than this time last year. This level has not been seen since April '95.
The forecast for personal finances over the next year has dropped nine points to a score of -18. This is thirty one points lower than this time last year. This level has not been seen since May ’94.
General Economic Situation
The measure for the general economic situation of the country during the last twelve months dropped three points to a score of –69; this is a massive forty-four points lower than this time last year. This score has not been this low since December ’92 when it was -67.
Expectations for the general economic situation over the next twelve months have dropped by a further seven points to -52; thirty-nine points lower than this time last year. This score is the lowest on record for this measure (GfK NOP data held since 1982).
Climate for Major Purchases
The major purchases measure has fallen by two points, from -35 to -37; this is thirty-five points lower than this time last year. This score is the lowest on record for this measure (GfK NOP data held since 1982).
Savings Index
The ‘now is a good time to save’ Index, has dropped by two points to +20, this is twenty two points lower than this time last year.
