The Irish Live Register total increased from 452,500 in July to 455,000 in
August, an increase of 2,500 and a new all-time record for the third straight
The Central Statistics Office (CSO) said today that in the year to August 2010 there was
an unadjusted increase in the Live Register of 30,198 (+6.9%). This compares
with an increase of 34,403 (+8.0%) in the year to July 2010.
January of 2009 represented
the spike in claimant increases in any month, with a record 33,000, or 11.3%,
rise - - 26,700 additions in February, 20,000 in March; 15,800 in April; 13,500
in May; 11,400 in June; 10,500 in July; 5,400 in August and 600 in September.
The total fell 3,000 in October; rose 900 in November and another 3,300 were
added in December, to bring the end 2009 total to 426,700. The total fell by 500
in April 2010 and rose to a record 439,100 in May. June saw 5,800 added, to a
then new all-time record in June: 444,900. 8,500 further claimants were added in
July to bring the total to a massive 452,500.
In July, 83%
are Irish and citizens from non-EU countries on the Live Register is over
14,000. The biggest number of people on the Register from outside the EU are
from Nigeria (approximately 3,000) followed by the US (approximately 700) and
the Congo with over 600.
Other features include:
There was an increase of 700 males and
1,900 females in the seasonally adjusted series in August.
The average net weekly increase in the
seasonally adjusted series in August 2010 was 625, which compares with a weekly
increase of 1,700 in the previous month.
The standardised unemployment rate in
August was 13.8%. This compares with 12.9% in the first quarter of 2010, the
latest seasonally adjusted unemployment rate from the Quarterly National
Household Survey. .
The CSO says the Live Register is not designed to measure unemployment.
It includes part-time workers (those who work up to three days a week), seasonal
and casual workers entitled to Jobseekers Benefit or Allowance. Unemployment is
measured by the Quarterly National Household Survey and the latest seasonally
adjusted figure, for January to March 2010, is 277,400 persons unemployed.
Live Register schemes analysis
The CSO said in August there were 144,840 Jobseekers Benefit (JB) claimants
on the Live Register, a monthly decrease of 4,888 (-3.3%). Jobseekers Allowance
(JA) applications increased by 4,413 (+1.5%) to 296,007 in the month, while
other registrants increased by 574 (+2.3%) to 26,076.
In the year to August 2010 JB claims fell by 48,631 (-25.1%), while JA
applications and other registrants both increased by 69,420 (+30.6%) and 9,409
In August there were 36,194 new registrants on the Live Register, which
compares with 60,187 in the previous month. New registrants consisted of 15,759
JB claims (43.5%), 18,815 JA applications (52.0%) and 1,620 other registrants
(4.5%). The CSO said it should be noted that the number of new registrants is
not the same as the overall change in the number of people on the Live Register
which is also affected by closed claims and the movement of people between
On average 9,049 new registrants joined the Live Register each week in
August, comprising 5,310 males (58.7%) and 3,739 (41.3%) females. In comparison
in February 2010 11,814 new registrants joined the Live Register each week,
consisting of 7,228 males (61.2%) and 4,586 (38.8%) females.
Live Register regional analysis
There was an unadjusted monthly increase of 99 (+0.0%) on the Live Register
in August. This increase was reflected in five of the eight regions, with the
largest percentage increase in the Mid-West region (+0.6%). The South-West
region showed the largest percentage decrease (-0.5%).
The unadjusted annual increase of 6.9% on the Live Register in the year to
August 2010 was reflected in all of the eight regions. The largest percentage
increase was in the South-East region (+8.7%), followed by the Midland region
(+7.8%). The smallest percentage increase was recorded in the West region
Live Register occupational groups
Craft and related (25.5%) was the largest occupational group on the Live
Register in August, followed by Plant and machine operatives (15.4%) and
Personal and protection service and Clerical and secretarial (both
10.7%). In February 2010 Craft and related (27.2%) was also the largest
Six of the nine occupational groups showed monthly Live Register increases in
August. The largest percentage increase was in the Professional group
(+1.2%), while the Clerical and secretarial group showed the largest
percentages decrease (-0.8%).
In the six months to August 2010 all occupational groups, other than the
Craft and related occupational group, showed Live Register increases with
the largest percentage increase in Professional (+26.8%), while the next
largest increases were in Clerical and secretarial (+14.6%) and Sales
(+ 11.9%). The smallest percentage increase was in the Managers and
administrators group (+1.0%). The Craft and related occupational
group showed a decrease of -0.1%.
There were increases in six of the nine occupational groups in the six months
to August for males on the Live Register. The largest percentage increase was in
the Associate, professional and technical group (+12.0%), with the
largest decreases in the Managers and administrators and Personal and
protective service groups (both -0.8%). For females there were increases in
all occupational groups in the six months to August 2010. The largest percentage
increase was in the Professional group (+43.3%) followed by the Other
occupation group (+25.8%).
|Source: Davy |
Davy economist, Aidan Corcoran, commented:
Knock-on effects from construction sector layoffs persist in August Live
- Another increase in seasonally adjusted Live Register figures brings the
estimated unemployment rate to 13.8%. This may be revised down somewhat if the
labour force is found to have shrunk.
- Seasonally adjusted, 2,500 people joined the Live Register in August. This
brings the total to 455,000.
- The high figure for females joining the Live Register (1,900 this month)
suggests that the increase may be largely due to knock-on effects from layoffs
in the construction sector and from reduced public expenditure.
Employment data lag the cycle
- As the labour market usually lags the business cycle, it is still too soon to
expect much progress on this figure.
Lynsey Clemenger, economist,
Republic of Ireland Ulster Bank Capital Markets, commented:
…with renewed weakness in the labour
market situation in recent months playing a big role
Numbers on the jobs market today help shed light on the more negative dynamic in
recent trends on retail sales. The QNHS (Quarterly National Household Survey)
measure of the unemployment rate is the official one, which was at 12.9% on the
latest Q1 numbers. The more timely Live Register (LR) estimate of the
unemployment rate is generally a reasonably good guide, albeit that it did
significantly overstate the official rate in Q1. This measure is based on
unemployment benefit claimants. While the 24,700 rise in claimants in the first
eight months of this year represents a dramatic turnaround from the 128,400
increase in the same period last year, a notable moderation in the numbers
signing on over the Feb-Apr period has given way to renewed weakness in recent
months. While seasonal adjustment factors around summer time may have played
some role, the trajectory here has been moving in the wrong direction lately.
On the latest August numbers, there was a further 2,500 rise in the seasonally
adjusted numbers on the LR. This translated into a modest uptick in the
unemployment rate estimate to 13.8%, from 13.7% in July. Together with the
employment index of the manufacturing PMI, the LR data point to clear upward
pressure on the official unemployment rate since Q1. While our base case is
still for a peak of between 13.5 and 14% by the end of the year on the QNHS
numbers, these latest numbers suggest that it is too soon to rule out an outturn
at the upper end of this range.
Labour market data will warrant close attention in coming months, in the
context of the trajectory of consumer spending going forward
Today’s numbers are disappointing on a number of fronts. The retail sales data
have clearly shown some renewed weakness in recent months. A large part of this
likely has its origins in the renewed weakness in the labour market of late, in
the sense that this has made it hard to sustain the improvement in consumer
spending seen earlier in the year. In our recent forecast update we refrained
from factoring in any recovery in consumer spending in average annual terms this
year, given that we expect consumers will remain cautious and savings will
remain elevated. While we have no insight into services spending since Q1, the
recent loss of momentum in the retail sales data means the risks surrounding our
forecast for a 0.1% annual average decline in consumer spending this year are
skewed modestly to the downside at this stage.
Éamon Ó Cuív TD, Minister for Social
Protection has said that while the "rate of
increase in the Live Register has moderated in August the level of unemployment
is still a matter of huge concern," for the Government.
"This increase in the Live Register during the
summer will be reversed this autumn. It is worth noting that within the register
are almost 64,000 people who are employed either casually or part time. We want
to improve our economy to help as many of those people as possible get back to a
5-day week and off the register."
Commenting on the figures, IBEC
economist Reetta Suonperä said: "The monthly
increase of 2,500 is the lowest since April, but nonetheless remains
unacceptably high. The signs that the labour market weakness has spread beyond
the construction sector are worrying. Women accounted for 1,900 of the monthly
increase and professional occupations have recorded the largest increases both
on a monthly and six-monthly basis.
“The trend in the outflow of claimants is weaker than in the early part of the
year, indicating that job creation remains sluggish.
“It is clear that we need decisive Government intervention to prevent current
high levels of unemployment from escalating to a permanent structural problem,
akin to that experienced in the 1980s. Measures to help sustain vulnerable
enterprises and jobs are required. Labour market programmes need to be close to
the market, so as to be a meaningful transition back into paid employment once
the economy recovers,” concluded Suonperä.