Source: CSO

Irish Live Register: The seasonally adjusted Live Register total increased from 244,500 in September to 260,300 in October, an increase of 15,800. In the year to October 2008, there was an unadjusted increase of 94,502 +60.0%. October figures were the largest jump ever in absolute terms at 15,800 and the second-biggest leap in percentage terms - - only January 1975 was worse.

The CSO says that this compares with an unadjusted increase of 79,565 (+49.5%) in the year to September 2008.

Other features include:

The monthly increase in the seasonally adjusted series consisted of an increase of 11,100 males and an increase of 4,800 females.

The standardised unemployment rate in October was 6.7%. This compares with 5.1% in the second quarter of 2008, the latest seasonally adjusted unemployment rate from the Quarterly National Household Survey.

In the month, the estimated number of casual and part-time workers on the Live Register was 14,386 males and 16,919 females.

Unemployment is measured by the Quarterly National Household Survey and the latest seasonally adjusted figure, for March to May 2008, is 115,100 persons unemployed.

The number claiming unemployment benefit rose again in October, as was the case in nine of the ten months in the year so far. However, the extent of the rise was considerably greater than expected.

The Reuters consensus forecast amongst economists was for a rise of 8,500. Claimants actually increased by 15,600, by far the largest monthly increase so far in 2008, and the steepest rise we have on record. As a result, the Live Register total has now surpassed the 260,000 mark, the first time this has happened since March 1997. By the year end, this total will almost certainly breech the 270,000 mark we had previously forecast.

The past twelve months have seen a sharp 57% increase in those claiming unemployment benefits. This adds to the strain on our public finances, following the release of the latest Exchequer returns figures yesterday, which showed the tax shortfall climbing to €4.3 billion in October.

We expect the numbers signing on will continue to rise for some time to come. Eventually, however, the monthly rise should start to fall back, as the labour force growth slows.

Job losses are ongoing outside of the troubled construction sector…

Males made up 11,100 or just over 70% of the total monthly increase in claimants in October - a clear indication that lay-offs in the construction sector are continuing at a fast pace. So far in 2008 the number of males signing on has risen by 62,500, compared with a rise of 8,600 over the same period last year.

Females have not escaped the effects of the deteriorating jobs market either. October was no exception, with female claimants rising by 4,800, the largest monthly rise in the year so far. This suggests weakness in the services industries linked to the construction sector, and the labour market in general.

We have been highlighting the acceleration in the number of females claiming unemployment benefits for some months now, a trend which we see set to continue well into 2009. Given the bleak outlook for completions in 2009 (UB est. 22,500), further increases in the number of males signing on is also likely in coming months.

Unemployment rate estimate to rise to 8% in 2009…

The latest estimate of the standardised unemployment rate showed a significant rise to 6.7% in October, from 6.3% in September. This represents the highest rate of unemployment since September 1998. On this basis, the unemployment rate may exceed 8% by the end of 2009 .

One of the main effects of this rising unemployment will be to drive consumer spending even lower in 2009, which given it represents almost 60% of total GNP, will have knock-on implications for Irish growth next year.