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News : International Last Updated: Jan 24, 2010 - 5:14:05 AM


Markets News Friday: Obama's assault on Wall Street hits shares
By Finfacts Team
Jan 22, 2010 - 9:01:48 AM

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President Barack Obama meets with former Federal Reserve chairman and current Economic Recovery Advisory Board chair Paul Volcker in the Oval Office, January 21, 2010.

The US administration's interventions in the market will not solve problems and will bring about unintended consequences, Marc Faber, author and publisher of the "Gloom, Boom & Doom Report," told CNBC Friday.

President Barack Obama on Thursday proposed new limits on the size and trading practices of big banks, to prevent excessive risk-taking.

"I don't have a very high opinion of Mr. Obama," Faber told "Squawk Box Europe." "I was negative of Mr. Bush but I think Mr. Obama makes him look like a genius."

"Basically I think everybody will agree that in an economic system the market solves problems best."

Maybe or maybe not.

As Irish writer George Bernard Shaw remarked about Christianity, it might be a good thing if anyone ever tried it. 

President Barack Obama proposed new limits on the size and activities of America's largest banks, on Thursday hit bank stocks as the President in the aftermath of the loss of Edward Kennedy's US Senate seat to a Republican prompted a tougher line on Wall Street.

With former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker, who had advocated more aggressive regulatory proposals, at his side, President Obama said he wanted to toughen existing limits on the size of financial firms and force them to choose between the protection of the government's safety net and the often-lucrative business of trading for their own accounts or owning hedge funds or private-equity funds.

He said the new provisions would be known as the "Volcker rule."

"Never again will the American taxpayer be held hostage by a bank that is too big to fail," Obama said.

"If people are focused on things that caused or were real contributors to the financial crisis, it wasn't trading,"said David Viniar, chief financial officer at Goldman Sachs.

In a related development on Thursday, the Supreme Court voted for money politics and gave new power to lobbyists by allowing interest groups - -  corporates, unions and others  - - to spend unlimited sums explicitly advertising against a candidate's re-election.

“We have got a million we can spend advertising for you or against you - -  whichever one you want,’ ” a lobbyist can tell lawmakers, said Lawrence M. Noble, a lawyer at Skadden Arps in Washington and former general counsel of the Federal Election Commission.

The decision seeks to let voters choose for themselves among a multitude of voices and ideas when they go to the polls, but it will also increase the power of organised interest groups at the expense of candidates and political parties.

Will the President's proposal on restricting big banks on trading activities break financials? Insight with Mark Matson, Matson Money; Alan Lancz and Alison Deans:

Prof. Peter Morici of the University of Maryland, commented: Obama Disappoints on Bank Reform:"President Obama announced he wants to prohibit banks from forming hedge funds, private equity funds and trading securities on their own accounts, and he wants to limit the size of banks and financial institutions generally.

Hedge funds, private equity funds and proprietary securities trading did not cause the banks to get into trouble, and the size of banks did not cause the credit crisis.

Banks, small and large, failed or required bailouts because of poorly considered loans, and the kinds of engineered products that were created from those loans by non-bank entities.

Collateralized debt obligations and swaps created and marketed by non-bank financial institutions, such as Lehman Brothers and Goldman Sachs, compounded the errors of foolish bankers. Later, Goldman Sachs and other financial institutions became banks to access inexpensive credit from the Federal Reserve, but those decisions could be reversed if bank holding companies are not permitted to trade on their own accounts.

Prohibiting securities trading by banks and limiting the size of the banks would not keep those mistakes from happening again.

Many smaller banks invested in risky securities—commercial mortgage backed securities. They did that and could do it again without a proprietary trading arm.

Large banks failed or required bailouts, because they continued to hold residential mortgages, residential mortgage back securities and credit card and auto loans that soured. Bad loans will sink a bank, regardless of whether it is owned by a holding company that trades securities on its own account.

The President’s statement on bank policy does not demonstrate a clear understanding of the causes of the credit crisis, and more importantly, it does not chart a clear path to reforms that would keep another crisis from occurring.

The President’s statement appears intended to distract public attention from record profits
and bonuses on Wall Street, and from his political troubles.

Coming on the heels of news that 450,000 Americans continue to file for first time unemployment benefits each week, and the Democrats loss of a special senatorial election in Massachusetts, the President’s Obama’s statement on bank reform appears political and disingenuous.

One year after taking office, the Administration should demonstrate a better understanding of the causes of economic crisis and articulate confident solutions for unemployment.

The Obama team simply does not have a grasp on the nation’s economic problems."

Euro's weakness against sterling badly needed fillip for exporters selling into UK

Davy chief economist, Rossa White, commented today: "Yesterday's export data spelled out the hit to goods exports from the strength of the euro against sterling in the first ten months of 2009. Visible exports to the UK fell 17% year-on-year (no data on services are yet available). But in the last six weeks, weakness of the euro against sterling (thank you Greece!), allied to the expiration of the cut in UK VAT rates, has provided a much-needed fillip to indigenous exporters. Let's hope the trend extends further.

It is worth making the point that the UK's importance as an export destination is somewhat exaggerated. In 2008, only 18.5% of Irish goods exports (it is a similar share for services) was destined for the UK (including Northern Ireland). That share fell to 15.7% in the period January-October 2009 as Irish exports to the UK slipped by €2.2bn year-on-year. Note that the rest of Irish goods exports were actually up 2% in value year-on-year in the same period: the negative UK trend meant that the total fell by 1.5%. Of course, many manufacturers compete with UK imports in the domestic market as well as servicing British consumers.

The strength of the euro has to be balanced by the acknowledgment that it has reduced import prices (about one-third of our consumer goods imports are sourced from the UK). That deflation has underpinned Irish real incomes at a time when nominal incomes were under pressure. But currency appreciation against sterling is undesirable on net. So the recent effective 7% competitive boost (FX and VAT) is welcome. In the short term, sterling may not move much further in Ireland's favour. But longer term, estimates of fair PPP value between 0.70-0.80 mean that exporters will at some point enjoy greater breathing space."

Most people in the financial markets and the general public of Ireland think that Irish Finance Minister Brian Lenihan is doing a good job of managing the country's economy, Dan McLaughlin from Bank of Ireland told CNBC Thursday. Interviews also with Brian Lehihan and Ryanair's Michael O'Leary:

US markets

The Dow fell 213 points or 2.01% to 10,390 Thursday.

After Wednesday's 122 point dip, the Dow is down 3.1% in two days and off 0.4% for 2010.

The Nasdaq dipped 1.12% and the S&P 500 dipped 1.89%.

Asia

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 1.4% Friday.

The Nikkei fell 2.56% and China's Shanghai Composite declined 2.71%.

Asia benchmarks

Finfacts Reports

Google reports strong fourth quarter revenue and earnings; Signalls wish to remain in China
Foreign-owned firms responsible for 89% of Irish tradable goods and services exports in 2008; Jobs in sector down 44,000 since 2000
Asia’s SMEs well placed for the regional recovery
Eurozone recovery continues in January but output growth slows
Markets News Afternoon: US Leading Economic Index increased sharply in December; Goldman Sachs reports record profits; Shares fall in Europe and US
Irish exports fell 1% in November - - down 14% in 12 months; Imports up 6% in month - - down 18% in 12 months
Ryanair to cut Dublin flights 20%: Blames airport charges; DAA rejects fraudulent claims - - says Ryanair's baggage charges up 600% since 2006; Credit card charges up 300%

In Europe, the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is down 0.13% Friday.

In Dublin, the ISEQ is up 0.32%.

Elan is up 2.92% after the European Medicines Agency re-affirmed that the benefits of Tysabri continue to outweigh risks for patients with highly active relapse-remitting MS but added that after its review it was recommending additional measures to be put in place to better manage the PML brain disease risk. The EMEA concluded that the risk of developing PML increases after two years of use, although this risk still remains low. It has recommended that measures be put in place to make patients and physicians fully aware of the risks, including an update on prescribing information and the provision of "patient alert cards", close monitoring of patients before, during and after Tysabri treatment and the recommendation that patients sign forms confirming that they are aware of the risks.

Goodbody's Gerry Hennigan comments on Tullow: "While yesterday brought confirmation of the early promise of the Tweneboa prospect offshore Ghana (gross reserve estimate of 1.4 bn barrels) it also provided uncertainty over the eventual outcome in the battle for Heritage’s 50% stakes in Block 1 & 3A in Uganda. Comments, in particular from the Ugandan Energy Minister, would appear to side with Eni over Tullow. As stated previously, such an outcome would, in our view, complicate Tullow’s own divestment programme, which sought to sell up to 50% of its holding in advance of the capital intensive investment phase involving a 1,300 km pipeline to the coast and/or a refinery. As of now, it is our understanding that no final decision has been made, with Tullow scheduled to make its case over the coming days. Should the eventual outcome favour Eni, it would likely have a bearing on the value that Tullow could derive from the part disposal of its interests in the region. As outlined at the time of the approach by Eni to Heritage (total consideration of $1.5 bn), we place a risked value on Tullow’s interests in Uganda of £2.4bn.

Adjusting that value to align with Heritage’s interests (50% of Block 1 & 3A), as opposed to Tullow (50% of Block 1 & 3A, 100% of Block 2) suggests a pro-rata value for Heritage of £799m (includes Kingfisher, Butiaba, Pelican and Crane). Based on a £/$ exchange rate of 1.65 that would translate into a value of $1.32bn, 12% below the agreed price. Potential variables in our Ugandan assessment include the fact that we have assigned 75% of the oil discovered in Butiaba to Tullow and 25% to Heritage, given that the field straddles Block 2 (Tullow 100%) and Block 3A (Tullow 50%, Heritage 50%). Also, we have assessed Uganda on the basis of 2.6bn barrels gross, which is in excess of Tullow’s guidance of over 2.0bn. We would add that our valuation appears to be at the low end of the consensus range.

Separately, Tullow released the results from the Kasemene-2 well this morning, which is of relevance in terms of establishing an early production system, with initial production slated to commence towards the end of 2011. 39m of net oil pay and 8m of net gas pay were recorded, which compares to the original well drilled on Kasemene. That uncovered a net oil column of 31m, and when subsequently tested flowed light oil (30 -33 degree API) at a rate of 3,500 bopd (barrels of oil per day."

Global growth, by far, is not strong enough to undo the damage that was done in 2009, says Hans Timmer, director of development prospects group at the World Bank, speaking with CNBC's Martin Soong, Sri Jegarajah & Amanda Drury:

European Benchmarks

Irish Share Prices

Irish Stock Market Capitalisation by Company

Key Index Performance Statistics

Euribor Rates

AIB Daily Report

Bank of Ireland Daily Report

Currencies

The euro is trading at $1.4116 and at £0.8709.

For live currency updates, check the right-hand column of the Finfacts home page.

The US dollar fell to $1.6038 per euro on Tuesday, July 15, 2008 - an-all time record.

Commodities

The Baltic Dry Index, a measure of shipping costs for dry commodities, hit an all-time High of 11,771 on the 21st of May, 2008. From that time it reversed and on the 5th of December, 2008 it hit a low of 663 - -  close to a 1986 low.

The BDI closed at 3,005 on Thursday, Dec 31st - - a rise of 289% in 2009.

The BDI rose 5.1% last week.

On Monday, it fell 4 points to 3,295; On Tuesday, the index fell 87 points or 2.64% to 3,208; on Wednesday, the index fell 50 points or 1.55% to 3,158; on Thursday the BDI added 12 points to 3,170.

The Key Indicator of Global Trade  - - Tudor Davies, Motley Fool UK.

Crude oil for March 2010 delivery is currently trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex) at $76.26 per barrel up 18 cents from Thursday's close. In London, Brent for March delivery is trading on the International Commodities Exchange at $74.88.

Gold spot price

 

Gold is trading at $1097.70 up $4.60 from Thursday's spot price close in New York.

Finfacts Gold Page

Goodbody's Eamonn Hughes comments: Irish Financials; Obama leans on US banking system - - "First, it was the Obama Tax, but now the US President has moved a step further with plans to curb risk taking by banks in the US. The proposals fall well shy of de-facto reinstatement of the (in)famous Glass-Steagall Act, but nonetheless seek to curb proprietary trading for banks with insured deposits. Also, other restrictions look to prohibit banks from investing in hedge funds and private equity firms. After the initial proposal from Obama, Barney Frank, the House Financials Services Committee Chairman, anticipated that the proposals would be phased in over 5 years, rather than immediately, presumably as the government takes a pragmatic approach to the issue. The proposals obviously have profound implications for the way Wall Street does business, though the impact on Main Street is likely to be more muted. As such, the regional banks heavily outperformed in the US overnight, with the likes of JPM, BoA and C all down 5-6% and the wider US Financials Index, down 3% dragged the market with it.

The latest Obama move represents a further step in the uptick in regulation to be superimposed on top of the financial system. Regulators everywhere are tightening capital and liquidity measures and the recent Basel 3 proposals, published in mid-December, were quite onerous. While the B3 proposals are unlikely to be implemented in their totality, the latest moves by Obama represent a further step to dent the long term ROE of the financial system and hence multiples. We have analysed the ROE of commercial banks in the US, the UK, Australia and Canada over the past 25-30 years. The average ROE is 13.5% by our calculations for the banks in the financial systems to which the Irish model is most closely aligned. With the Irish market consolidating around a number of players that you could count on the fingers of one hand (excluding your thumb!), we are pitching a sustainable ROE for Irish banks of c15%. However, with the inexorable - for the moment - move to impose stricter regulations on the financial system globally, this represents our base case, but also the highest likely outcome."


Goodbody chief economist, Dermot O’Leary, comments:  Economic View; Ireland is still a play on international recovery - -
"By improving its competitive position and piggybacking on an international recovery, the Irish economy is likely to emerge from recession and return to growth. That is the plan anyway. While it is very early days, there is no sign as yet that the improving external position is having an impact on Irish merchandise exports at least. To the contrary, export growth has weakened over recent months. Yesterday’s data show the value of exports fell by 10% yoy in the three months to November; in Q2, the value of exports was up by 3% yoy.

The relative resilience of Irish merchandise exports in the first half of 2009 can be attributed to the performance of the multi-national pharmaceutical sector, and this sector can now be blamed for the weakening trend (although some of the weakness may be related to translation effects from a weaker dollar as 2009 progressed). In volume terms, exports fell by 7% yoy in the three months to October, but imports fell by 20%.

Two points are worth making at this stage about the contribution that net exports will make to the Irish recovery: (1) A majority of Irish merchandise exports stem from the pharmaceutical sector and so are not as sensitive to the economic cycle and; (2) merchandise exports have become less important to Ireland over recent years (estimated 55% of total exports in 2009, relative to 64% in 2004), with services taking over the baton. We believe that this trend is likely to continue, with Ireland targeting this sector over recent years rather than focusing on the manufacturing industry as it did in the 1990s. We know that Ireland still has domestic issues to deal with, but given the openness of the economy, it is still a play on the international recovery, especially if recent strides on improving competitiveness continue."

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