Irish Live Register

Ulster Bank economist Lynsey Clemenger said today: "The total on the LR now stands at 422,500. While still up 62% on a year earlier, the situation is nowhere near as bad as most (ourselves included) had feared earlier in the year. For example, as per the Reuters consensus forecast amongst economists in April, the median estimate was for the number claiming unemployment benefit to hit 520,000 by the end of this year. Based on our estimates the end year outcome is likely to be almost 100,000 lower. One welcome implication of this development is that it will make the budget arithmetic somewhat less difficult for the Minister for Finance in his December Budget - 100,000 fewer workers on the LR for a full year would result in savings for the Exchequer of over €1 billion.

An important question is what is behind the more encouraging trends currently signalled by the LR. We believe that there are two main factors at play here. The first explanation is that while labour demand is still weak and probably falling, the weakness is not as severe as it had been at the turn of the year. This was evident in the latest official employment data from the Quarterly National Household Survey, available up to and including the second quarter. The data showed that while employment is still falling, the pace of the decline eased in Q2 following pronounced weakness in the preceding two quarters. This was further evidenced in the survey data of private sector employment from each of the Manufacturing, Services and Construction PMIs. Importantly, these more timely indications from the business surveys are indicating that while employment in the period since Q2 is still falling, the rate of deterioration has moderated further.

Secondly, although the LR numbers don’t provide direct evidence, an additional factor in explaining the lower than expected numbers signing on is likely rising emigration. The detailed breakdown between National and Non-Irish Nationals on the LR up to September has shown signs of improvement in both. However, the extent of the improvement on the Non-Irish worker group looks somewhat more pronounced. This suggests that outward migration, especially from the Accession States, is now probably playing more of a role in the adjustment process in the Irish labour market. We will get a further update on this in Friday’s detailed LR release for October."

IBEC Chief Economist David Croughan said: "The LR numbers are an indication, not a measure of unemployment. They must be seen in the context of other indicators showing continuing job losses: redundancies in October were as high as they were in January, after showing some moderation in the June-August period; the Purchasing Managers Index for both manufacturing and services show continuing job losses, though at a significantly reduced rate.

"Business remains under immense pressure due to the global downturn and the massive fall in the value of sterling. It is vital that the government puts in place a stimulus package to retain current employment and stimulate job creation."

IBEC has called on the government to:

• Expand the criteria and the funding of the Employment Subsidy Scheme and the Enterprise Stabilisation Fund, to incorporate all exporters and companies in the sub-supply industries and those suffering from import substitution because of sterling weakness;
• Apply a reduced employers’ PRSI rate for the employment for any new jobs created in 2010;
• Introduce a state-backed trade credit insurance scheme to overcome the complete market failure in this area;
• Help retain newly qualified graduates in Ireland by extending the FAS placement scheme and introducing a dedicated bursary system for graduate internships.

Irish Live Register fell 3,000 to 422,500 in October - - first fall since January 2007 may reflect emigration

Tallaght development

In an echo of the boom years, ar €250 million regeneration programme for the Square town centre in Tallaght, south-west Dublin that will create 4,000 new retail jobs and more than 2,000 construction jobs, was announced today.

Penneys Chairman Arthur Ryan confirmed that the clothing retailer would open a flagship store for Ireland at the Square.

The Square Regeneration Project has planning permission, financial support, and commitments from several key new tenants to commence the Regeneration Project as soon as possible, said Centre Director of The Square Eamonn Furlong.

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