1999 - 2009

World trade volume fell by 6.6% in January from the previous month based on preliminary data, following a drop of 5.9% in December (revised up from a drop of 7.0%) and a drop of 6.3% in November (revised down from 5.3%). The three month average fall was a stunning 40.7% annual rate, according to data published today by the CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.

The CPB says the trade falls drops are without precedent in the data series that reaches back until 1991. The biggest drop before was 1.9% in February 1991 and in March 2008. In January, the strongest import drop occurred in the Japan (-7.3%). Japan also showed the strongest export drop (-15.8%).

Monthly trade numbers are volatile and focus on 3-months moving average (momentum) is therefore preferable.

In the three months up to January, world trade was down by 40.7% at an annual rate from the preceding three months (non-annualised the drop was 12.3%). In the previous period (the three months up to October), world trade growth was still growing by 9.2% at an annual rate. The drop in the three months up to January was the biggest on record (series start in 1991). Most noticeable in the three months up to January are the sharp drop in the imports of emerging countries (-53.0% at an annual rate, -17.2% non-annualised) and the sharp drop in Japanese exports (-68.7% at an annual rate, -25.2% non-annualised).

World trade volume growth is on a sharp downward trend, based on twelve months over the previous twelve months (see final graph). In January, trend growth was 0.6%, down from the record high of 9.4% in August

2007. The sharp downward trend also shows up in year-on-year rates: world trade in January 2009 was 17% lower than in January 2008.

World trade prices