The International Energy Agency (IEA) - - the energy adviser to 28 developed countries including Ireland - - said today at the climate change talks in Poland that the global economic slowdown must be viewed as an opportunity, not a distraction from efforts to mitigate climate change. Separately, at the talks, the World Bank said that climate change is an economic as well as an environmental issue, and countries in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union should invest more in weather forecasting to reduce its impact on their citizens. As climate variability increases in the coming decades, better weather forecasting will become even more critical to aid farmers seeking to plant crops at the right time, better protect people from losses due to natural disasters, and help pilots who need predictable weather patterns for safe flying, a new World Bank study finds.
"The global economic slowdown must be viewed as an opportunity, not a distraction from efforts to mitigate climate change. Countries planning fiscal stimulus packages should invest in energy efficiency and clean technologies to build sustainable energy infrastructure." said Nobuo Tanaka, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), today at the UN climate talks (COP14) in Poznan, Poland.
"This sort of Clean Energy New Deal, not only generates economic growth and makes sense from an environmental standpoint, but also enhances energy security. All countries could benefit," he added
A Clean Energy New Deal for the energy sector
The energy sector must play a key role in tackling climate change. Global energy-related CO2 emissions, which account for 61% of global greenhouse gas emissions, show no sign of decline. The latest complete data of CO2 emissions indicate a 33% rise between 1990 and 2006. Between 2005 and 2006, all of the growth in these emissions took place outside the OECD region. OECD countries clearly felt the rise in energy prices earlier this year. In other parts of the world, vibrant economic growth but also subsidies that shield consumers from substantial energy price increases have led to emissions growth. Energy subsidies amounted to a staggering USD 310 billion in 20 non-OECD countries representing 80% of total non-OECD primary energy demand in 2007. The dramatic fall in energy prices in recent months has helped provide breathing space for the depressed economy, but could cause delays in investment in new production, leading to a supply crunch in the medium term as energy demand grows, and slow progress in energy efficiency and the development of cleaner alternative technologies.
"The current volatility in global energy markets and the broader economic slowdown must not push us off-track from our efforts to address climate change. We must put in place the framework that will guide investment during the recovery and we must start the green infrastructure that will enable the sustainable economy going forward. We think there is an enormous opportunity to develop a Clean Energy New Deal, to achieve energy security, economic and environmental goals," Tanaka stated.
"By adopting new energy efficiency measures, constructing green energy infrastructure and taking steps to integrate cleaner energy into the power grids, governments can lock in sustainable technologies and reduce CO2 emissions by almost 40% relative to the projected baseline emissions for 2030." According to the IEA publication World Energy Outlook 2008 (WEO), greening the energy system requires additional investment of USD 3.6 trillion in power plants and USD 5.7 trillion in energy efficiency over the period 2010-2030. These additional investments correspond to 0.6% of GDP per year, but bring fuel cost savings to consumers of the order of USD 6 trillion.
All countries must work together to stabilise emissions
The IEA is actively supporting governments in the design of the best policy packages to manage the energy revolution needed to arrive at a sustainable post-2012 global climate-change policy regime. The WEO 2008 presents policy scenarios consistent with a long-term stabilisation of greenhouse-gas concentration at 550 and 450 parts per million of CO2 equivalent. Both are based on a hybrid policy approach, with a plausible combination of cap-and-trade systems, sectoral approaches and national measures. All nations will need to be involved in a fair and proportionate manner. "Our analysis shows that OECD countries alone cannot put the world onto a 450-ppm trajectory, even if they were to reduce their emissions to zero", Tanaka warned. Looking out to 2050, the IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 2008 confirms that urgent technology development and deployment at unprecedented rates are needed, from renewables to carbon capture and storage (CCS), nuclear power, low carbon fuels, and end-use efficiency. "Because these technologies need all the financial help they can get, the IEA supports the inclusion of carbon capture and storage in the Clean Development Mechanism or other flexible mechanisms within the UN climate change regime," said Tanaka. The IEA highlights key steps to foster action.
First, instead of allowing the global economic slowdown to hinder mitigation efforts, countries planning fiscal stimulus programmes to construct new energy infrastructure and enhance energy efficiency must identify and deploy clean technologies. Second, the power generation sector, where the risk of carbon lock-in is highest, needs a strong carbon price signal to divert investment away from CO2-emitting capacity. Efforts to incorporate more renewables into the power grid should also be encouraged. Third, some of the more globalised industries could rely on sectoral approaches to achieve reductions while removing competitiveness concerns that arise as installations in parts of the world stand to gain competitive advantage on the back of climate policy. Finally, all countries must take immediate steps to revive their energy efficiency policies -- a cost-saving means to improve both energy security and lower CO2 emissions.
"We need worldwide implementation now of energy efficiency policies: the IEA tabled 25 concrete recommendations which G8 leaders strongly supported in Hokkaido which, if implemented globally, would save 8.2 Gt CO2 annually to 2030,"Tanaka explained. The IEA is also acting on two additional fronts to push progress on energy and climate policy. First, it is increasingly involving countries beyond its membership, including large emerging economies, in its debates on energy policy issues. Secondly, the Agency is enhancing its collection of indicators to assess the energy performance of various sectors around the world and to support more effective climate policies in the energy sector. "The IEA is ready to provide robust data and analysis to support action. to advance practical solutions to climate change in the energy sector," Tanaka emphasised.
World Bank and Climate Change
Climate change is an economic as well as an environmental issue, and countries in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union should invest more in weather forecasting to reduce its impact on their citizens. As climate variability increases in the coming decades, better weather forecasting will become even more critical to aid farmers seeking to plant crops at the right time, better protect people from losses due to natural disasters, and help pilots who need predictable weather patterns for safe flying, a new World Bank study finds.
Released on Saturday, Weather and Climate Services in Europe and Central Asia: A Regional Review, suggests that forecasting improvements in Europe and Central Asia can play a critical role in improving the economy and mitigating disasters in the region. According to the report, weather services in many countries in Europe and Central Asia have been chronically underfunded and in a state of decay since the early 1990s, so potential gains from forecasting are missed. Improving weather monitoring systems can help mitigate damaging economic impacts of weather disasters, support increased productivity of agriculture, conserve energy, and promote safe aviation and transport by road and rail.
“The current lack of capacity and technical equipment has resulted in a ‘black hole’ of weather information in some countries,” said Vladimir Tsirkunov, Senior Environmental Engineer for Europe and Central Asia and the team leader of the study. “The result is that it is impossible to effectively track and predict weather patterns developing in these areas. It is a serious problem because it has a spillover effect on neighboring countries and their economies −now and in the future.”
Farmers are among those hardest hit by shortcomings in forecasting services, according to the report. Agriculture is particularly important in Central Asian and Caucasus economies, and as a result, farmers in those countries have likely been disproportionately affected by deteriorating capacity.
“Weather systems are taken for granted in OECD countries,” said Lucy Hancock, the lead author of the report. “But the bottom line is that a country like Tajikistan, for example, has to re-sow an average of 70,000 hectares each year because initial sowings are washed or blown away. Better forecasts could reduce those losses. Helping farmers to anticipate the kind of weather they will have will help increase yields while decreasing wasted resources. It will also help with other aspects of farming like fertilizing and pest and disease control.”
The deteriorating capacity in Central Asian countries is in stark contrast to the modernization underway in Russia, where a US$133 million World Bank investment in the Russian Hydromet Modernization Project is expected to generate a return of roughly 400 – 800 percent over the period of project implementation. A few years ago, the link between weakening forecast capacity and increasing vulnerability in Russia was evident when hazardous and unexpected weather phenomena increased from 6 percent at the beginning of the 1990s to 23 percent a decade later. With this challenge in mind, the Russian Government and the World Bank targeted weather services for investment in order to reduce their vulnerability. An economic assessment has indicated that the planned investment is likely to achieve a reduction of 8.5 percent in weather-related economic losses as a result of forecasting improvements.
The new Weather and Climate Services report says that investment in forecasting infrastructure and capacity building benefits the surrounding countries as well. Poor capacity in any one of the Central Asian and Caucasus countries affects the ability of all the other countries in those sub-regions to monitor weather systems as they approach. Countries in South East Europe face a similar challenge due to weak information sharing.
“Poor capacity is a serious problem,” said Tsirkunov. “In the case of disaster mitigation, forecasting severe weather saves lives – allowing emergency management teams to be put in place, mitigation measures prepared, and giving citizens time to get out of dangerous areas. A flood warning helps to significantly reduce damage with as little as one hour of lead time. But the research shows that very often there is little lead time at all.”
The study was coordinated and the development of its conclusions discussed with the hydromet directors concerned, representatives of the World Meteorological Organization, European Union (EU) and Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) stakeholders, regional associations of hydromet directors, and other global stakeholders.
