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| The Jeddah Corniche by the Red Sea - Jeddah, the Saudi Arabian commercial capital, has historically been the port city for the Holy City of Makkah, located to the south.
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The former chairman of the US Federal Reserve
Alan Greenspan, has warned that US economic growth has stalled and a quick
recovery is not likely. Meanwhile, Bill Gross, manager of the world's
biggest bond fund PIMCO, says that until
recently, US and therefore global demand has been driven by the ability to lower
interest rates and extend credit to an increasing majority of Americans.
Gross says that because
demand in the form of consumption has been artificially and fictitiously
stimulated in recent years by financial engineering run amuck, there is a
legitimate question as to whether its black hole imploding destructiveness can
be totally countered with another dose of lower yields and deficit spending
packages.
"As of right now US economic growth is
at zero," Greenspan said on Monday, at an investment conference in Jeddah,
Saudi Arabia's Red Sea commercial capital. "We are at
stall speed."
The US Federal Reserve said last week that 2008
growth will be between 1.3% and 2%.
Greenspan also forecast that booming oil prices,
which hit a record of more than $101 last week would keep rising and that the US
housing market would worsen before the tide turned.
On Monday, the National Association of Realtors
reported that sales of existing US houses
in January,
were 23.4% below
the January 2007 level.
Increased globalisation of trade could offset a
sharp downturn in consumer spending and "facilitate the absorption of shocks
in the US," Greenspan said.
In a separate speech at an investment conference
in the Gulf state of Abu Dhabi, Greenspan said US resistance to Gulf or Asian
government-backed investors would be "counter-productive" and will result
in all parties being "losers".
Dangers of a déjà vu trek to 1%
short rates
Bill Gross, PIMCO
Managing Director, said overnight, that
Australian government debt is more attractive than Treasuries because US Federal
Reserve policy makers are failing to tackle inflation.
``US citizens, the Federal Reserve and
policy makers, certainly in an election year, are unwilling to accept their
medicine,'' Gross told a meeting in Sydney via a live
broadcast from Newport Beach, California-based Pacific Investment Management
Co.'s (PIMCO) head office. ``They're unwilling to endure the pain'' of
raising interest rates.
In his
monthly
Investment Newsletter for February, Gross says that the US needs a
"demand-based" fiscal package alright, but a $300-$500 billion permanent
one, in addition to the proposed temporary stimulus package,
"as the system of modern day levered shadow finance slows to a crawl or even
contracts at the edges, its ability to systemically fertilize economic growth
must be called into question. But government writing checks for American
consumers which then flow to foreign central banks is not the permanent
solution; it only makes sense in the short-term as a life preserver. To provide
a stable recovery path, government spending needs to fill the gap – not
consumption. Public works programs, badly needed infrastructure repairs, as well
as spending on research and development projects should form the heart of our
path to recovery. Assistance for homeowners? That too – figure out a
fiscal/regulatory way to stop the slide in housing prices and foreclosures but
please – no traffic jams at the Wal-Mart checkout counter in 2009 and beyond."
Gross writes:
"Chairman Bernanke must recognize the reduced benefits and obvious dangers of
a déjà vu trek to 1% short rates. Those yields produced 5% 30-year mortgage
rates to the homeowner for a 2-3 month period in 2003 and they could do so
again, but bubble creating, inflation inducing damage to the U.S. dollar would
be the likely result now. Best to stop far short of 1% and at the same time
encourage reforms in FHA government assisted programs that would permit
subsidized mortgage rates with minimal down payments.
An artificially low, 1% short-term interest rate
was an elixir during the days of a burgeoning shadow banking system. It cannot
be the solution now.
In combination, a well
constructed, more than temporary fiscal/monetary stimulus plan is what is
required to rejuvenate a U.S. economy reeling from a low punch delivered by a
private market economy gone too far. Its "Rosemary’s Baby" took the form of a
shadow banking system based on leverage and the fateful conclusion that a
finance-based economy alone can deliver prosperity."