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News : EU Economy Last Updated: Feb 11, 2010 - 5:54:20 AM


Germany considering plan with Eurozone partners to provide Greece and other debt-laden members with loan guarantees
By Finfacts Team
Feb 10, 2010 - 3:44:59 AM

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Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy at a press conference in the Elysée Palace, February 04, 2010

Germany is reported to be considering a plan with its Eurozone partners to provide Greece and other debt-laden members of the with loan guarantees in an attempt to calm fears of a government default and prevent a widening of the credit woes.

The Wall Street Journal says the plan would be undertaken within the EU framework but led by Germany, one of the people said. German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble has discussed the idea in recent days with European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet, according to the person. Schäuble told officials in Berlin on Monday that he had concluded there "was no alternative" to a rescue plan, according to a person familiar with his comments. Meanwhile, in New York, US shares rose on the news with the Dow Jones Industrial Average gaining more than 200 points to cross back over the 10,000 level.

Just under 50% of all Greek debt is set to mature between now and the end of 2014 and its financing needs amount to some €55bn this year, of which about half falls due between now and the end of May, including €17bn in amortisations of long-term debt.

Eurozone banks have still toxic debt on their balance sheets and apart from the direct impact of a Greek default, there would be serious concerns of a domino effect on the other members of the infamous PIGS grouping.

The Journal says German banks are major lenders in Greece, for example, collectively carrying about $43bn in Greek debt on their books, including loans to private individuals and companies, according to Bank for International Settlements data for the third quarter of 2009. Among EU countries, only France's banks, with $75bn, carry a larger share of Greece's $303bn in debt to foreign banks.

In addition, some of Germany's public-sector banks, known as Landesbanken, have issued insurance-like contracts on Greek debt, known as credit-default swaps. The total exposure of the the country's eight Landesbanken is unclear.

Spain's Treasury plans to issue €76.8bn  in net debt in 2010, down 34% from a year earlier, as the government withdraws crisis borrowing and attempts to reassure markets its debt plan is under control.

"[The] Tesoro Publico is open to additional foreign-currency issuance,''Treasury chief Soledad Nuñez told investors in London at the start of a two-day roadshow to promote Spain's 2010 debt plan. Last week, Spain raised its 2009 public deficit to 11.4% of GDP (gross domestic product ) from 9.5%.

The “i” in the PIGS acronym stands for Ireland and not Italy, where higher private savings and better management of public finances put it “in a significantly stronger position” than Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain, Italian bank UniCredit SpA said in a report last week.

“When talking about PIGS, the ‘i’ stands for Ireland, not Italy,” UniCredit economists said. Italy,“as investors have already recognized, is a different species, with problems of its own (anemic growth).”

The nicknames PIGS and PIIGS, the latter including both Ireland and Italy, have become popular as investors dump assets in the Eurozone’s smaller economies on worries that they will have trouble cutting their budget deficits. “The correct spelling is PIGS, not PIIGS,” economists at the Milan-based bank including lead economist, Marco Annunziata, wrote in the report.

Any country that appears to have sovereign debt problems is being hammered by the market, Simon Derrick from Bank of New York Mellon told CNBC Tuesday. James Barty from Arrowgrass Capital Partners and David Bloom from HSBC joined the discussion:

 

On Thursday, EU leaders will meet in Brussels, with EU President Herman Van Rompuy, in the chair. The official agenda is on increasing competitiveness over the current decade but with Jean-Claude Trichet, the European Central Bank president, in attendance, the crisis is bound to have centre stage.

French President Nicolas Sarkozy will meet with Greece's Prime Minister Giorgos Papandreou, in Paris today.

The Financial Times reports today that countries outside the Eurozone, led by the UK and Sweden, broke from the public position of Germany, France and other Eurozone members by suggesting that, if Greece required help, the International Monetary Fund was best placed to supply it.

A Swedish official said: “The IMF has the technical knowledge.” Officials in London have privately urged Eurozone countries not to rule out an IMF intervention, even if European pride is dented.

“The fund has the expertise and the resources,”said one UK official. “We are supporting the Eurozone in whatever they do, but we felt the IMF route should not have been excluded at an early stage."

Latvia’s commitment to the toughest fiscal austerity measures in the European Union has paid off and may allow the Baltic state to fulfill the bloc’s budget requirements in two years, President Valdis Zatlers said last month.

“All the macroeconomic figures show that we have stabilized and are starting to improve,” Zalters said in an interview at the world Economic Forum, in Davos, Switzerland.“We have a very clear exit strategy to meet the Maastricht criteria by 2012 or 2013 and join the Eurozone by 2014.”

“The Latvian example shows that the very, very huge budget adjustments are not only necessary but they are possible, and can create predictive, positive results,”Zatlers said. “You have to have the worst scenario with the toughest measures at the beginning.”

Latvia’s program of cuts required to fulfill international loan donor terms, is equivalent to about 16.5% of GDP. The country’s experiences pushing through unpopular austerity measures that left locals poorer may yet be repeated in other EU states, Zatlers said.

In Greece, last weekend, four separate polls showed public support of more 60% for tough measures to fix the country's public finances, and some Greeks wanted even-stiffer remedies. The polls also showed relatively little support for recent protests by farmers or for coming strikes by civil servants.

The European Union summit on Thursday, will focus on help for the Greek economy, reports CNBC's Europe:

 

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