US nonfarm payroll employment rose by 271,000 in October, and the unemployment rate was essentially unchanged at 5.0%. Job gains occurred in professional and business services, health care, retail trade, food services and drinking places, and construction. The broad rate of unemployment was 9.8%.

Chinese manufacturing has contracted for the third month in a row, according to the official monthly factory survey that mainly reflects the activities of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) while a survey of private sector companies shows that operating conditions faced by Chinese goods producers continued to deteriorate in October, even though at the weakest rate in four months. Elsewhere in Asia, activity rose in Japan; it was close to stagnation in India and it fell in South Korea and Indonesia.

US gross domestic product (GDP) economic growth fell sharply in the third quarter as firms' inventories fell and the pace of spending by consumers, businesses and governments all decelerated. Today's estimate is the first of three and also in the third quarter new jobs added in the economy slowed after 18 months of jobs gains by an average of more than 200,000 jobs per month.

The European Central Bank last week signalled more quantitative easing (QE) or bond-buying from December. The Bank of Japan will hold a policy board meeting on this Friday amid growing speculation over whether it will surprise markets with additional credit easing, just as it did a year ago. Meanwhile the Federal Reserve may put off its first interest rate rise since 2006 until 2016.

Within this century, parts of the Middle East, in particular the Persian Gulf region, could be hit with unprecedented events of deadly heat as a result of climate change, according to a study of high-resolution climate models, published Monday. Generally, Jeddah, the Red Sea port city in Western Saudi Arabia and Mecca in the mountains to the south, have more moderate temperatures than in the east coast but I was in Jeddah on 30 June 1995 for the hottest day in 20 years — 48°Celsius (118°Fahrenheit) and higher when humidity is accounted for. In more recent times Jeddah has been hit by extreme floodings and on 22 June 2010 the temperature rose to 52°C (126°F) — the record heat was accompanied by a sandstorm, which triggered power plant blackouts.

Kuala Lumpur: We reported last month that the El Niño weather pattern which originates in the Pacific Ocean may be the strongest since 1950. In Asia this past week, Luzon, the main Philippine island, was deluged with water but not too far distant, there has been little rain and over 100,000 peatland fires in Indonesia have been tracked this year and they continue to smoulder, releasing greenhouse gases equivalent to about 600m tons through September 22, a number that rivals annual carbon dioxide emissions from Germany, according to Guido van der Werf, a Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam scientist.

Japanese manufacturing activity expanded in October at its fastest pace since March 2014 as new domestic and export orders increased, a preliminary business survey showed on Friday.

Despite heightened worries in recent weeks about the stability of China's economy and the process of reform, around two-thirds (63%) of senior executives from financial services companies in China, and more than three-quarters of those offshore (78%) think that the renminbi (RMB) will become fully convertible and tradable without restrictions in around five years'time. Majorities of both groups believe it will take only slightly longer (7-10 years) for the RMB to become a global investment currency. 

A report by the US Treasury has estimated that capital outflows from China in the 8 months of 2015 to August exceeded $500bn. The report says that the renminbi (RMB) has appreciated nearly 30% in real effective terms since June 2010.

Last month when Citi Research forecast that a global recession is likely in coming years, Martin Wolf, the chief economic commentator of the Financial Times wrote tha the case was plausible. "This does not mean we must expect a recession. But people should see such a scenario as plausible." On Tuesday Willem Buiter, Citi's chief economist and a former professor at the London School of Economics and Political Science, teaching political economy, told a Milken Institute conference in London (see video below) that the global economy faces a period of below potential growth and declining trade next year as emerging nations struggle with tightening monetary policy.